Some great analysis by Polipundit

The poll numbers get sliced and diced in this long, but excellent read. I don't know that I'd go so far as to call it a 12-point win for Bush, walking away, but I do like the overall picture. And there's some sound reasoning behind it:

"You see, when a challenger runs against a President, he starts way behind. A successful challenger, a Clinton or a Reagan, he not only finds a way to get people to doubt the President, he also builds up his own base. In fact, he builds up his base first, which is why the Primaries are so important. The Democrats forgot some basic reasons why you run a full-scale Primary season. Part of that, a big one, is that you have to get people to like your guy. When Kerry became the front-runner, he ought to have decided where he was going to be on the big issues, and stick to them, but he did not."

Thanks to another longtime Ldotter for passing this along.