A conservatory of Ldotter blogs.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

About those predictions. . .

. . .I posted earlier this morning. It looks like my Indiana prognostication might hold up, though perhaps a tick closer than I called it. But, holy crap! North Carolina! Here in Kentucky, we call that a good ol' country ass-whuppin'. Of course, some of the coastal counties haven't reported any results as of this writing, but I can hardly imagine a scenario wherein my predicted close call could come to be.

So, what does this mean? Well, it means Hillary goes on to fight in Kentucky and West Virginia. I think it's reasonably likely that she'll put together a win on the order of Obama's NC win, here in Kentucky. I don't have any polling figures to point to, so I'm operating on pure gut feeling. But, I would be surprised if Obama loses by less than a 15-point margin. I think West Virginia probably goes well for Hillary, too. Maybe not as heavily for Hillary as Kentucky, but she should win by a substantial margin.

Both states have relatively small numbers of black voters, so Obama won't be able to count on a significant boost, even though he comes into the contests with near unanimous black support. Again, this is pure gut instinct, but I suspect that his 90%-plus level of support among North Carolina blacks could possibly redound to his detriment in both states -- particularly if word gets around that his supporters in North Carolina and Indiana have accused the Clinton campaign of "Dog Whistle racism".

Among Kentucky Democrats, there's a fairly solid core of affinity for the Clinton brand. Don't be surprised if her campaign decides to push back against the "dog whistle" charges as she's campaigning here. After all, it is an extremely cynical ploy to intimidate her campaign into backing off from the very legitimate concerns about his electability. Obama's supporters are essentially saying, "If you play your strongest hand, we're going to tar you as a racist."

If Kentuckians, and I suspect West Virginians, get the notion that they're being browbeaten into voting against Clinton to prove they're not bigots, it will backfire badly.

: As of 10:52 Central Time, it looks like my predictions have been pretty bad. Obama is now within one point in Indiana. The North Carolina results are tightening up, but not enough to soothe my wounded pride.

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